Times Online: Capital expenditure will be a key number in Shell's results. Citigroup expects capex to rise by $5 billion to $20 billion a year because of cost over-runs at facilities in Russia, Nigeria, Qatar, Canada and Kazakhstan. Such spending will not help earnings.”: Posted Saturday October 22, 2005

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Times Online's guide to the week's business stories. By Bryce Elder

Shell seems as good a place to start as any. Third-quarter earnings growth at Europe's second-largest oil company is expected to show the effects of hurricane-hit lower production.

Net income for the quarter is expected at between $4.37 billion and $5.92 billion, up 18 per cent at the median compared with $4.38 billion previously. That would be the slowest growth since the second half of 2004, when quarterly earnings surged by as much as 200 per cent as oil prices rocketed. Like BP two days earlier, Shell's annual production target of between 3.5 million and 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day may be at risk due to stoppages.

Capital expenditure will be a key number in Shell's results. Citigroup expects capex to rise by $5 billion to $20 billion a year because of cost over-runs at facilities in Russia, Nigeria, Qatar, Canada and Kazakhstan. Such spending will not help earnings.

"With no discernible near-term growth benefits, elevated capex will depress returns and limit free cash flow generation, with negative implications for buybacks and dividend growth rates relative to peers," the US broker said.

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