Financial Times: THE WORLD THAT TOMORROW MIGHT BRING: “Shell's Global Scenarios to 2025 start from the assumption that two crises - September 11 and Enron - have affected national security and trust.”: Monday 24 October 2005

Published: October 24 2005

Shell's Global Scenarios to 2025 start from the assumption that two crises - September 11 and Enron - have affected national security and trust. It paints three scenarios that might emerge as a result:

*Low-trust globalisation - a legalistic world. The absence of market solutions to the security crisis, rapid regulatory change and conflicting laws lead to intrusive controls, encouraging a short-term attitude to financial returns and vertical integration.

*Open doors - a pragmatic world. Built-in security certification, regulatory harmonisation, independent media, voluntary best practice codes and close links between investors and civil society encourage cross-border integration.

*Flags - a dogmatic world. Zero-sum games, regulatory fragmentation and national preferences, conflicts over values and religion give insiders an advantage and put a brake on globalisation. Gated communities, patronage and national standards exacerbate fragmentation, and make careful country risk management essential.

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