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The Times October 28, 2005



 

The Times: Shell's solid platform may become a little shaky in the future: "
The investment programme for next year, still to be confirmed, is likely to be higher with some analysts predicting an $18 billion capital expenditure budget, reflecting the large cost overrun at the Sakhalin liquefied natural gas project. ": Friday 28 October 2005
 

SOMEONE up there is looking more kindly on Shell, the Anglo-Dutch multinational that reported its third-quarter numbers yesterday. After all its troubles in recent years, it has had something of a let-off from the passage of hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Even with the battering to Mars, its biggest Gulf oil platform, which will not be up and running until late next year, Shell put the cost of the damage at $350 million (£196 million). That is about half the amount that BP factored in for its hurricane damage.

 
Meanwhile, the operating results were well ahead of City forecasts, suggesting that Shell is squeezing what it can out of a very favourable environment. The big question is what would Shell look like if fortune was less kind to the company. Oil and gas output is unlikely to grow much in the short term from this year’s estimate of 3.5 million barrels per day. This reflects Shell’s challenge in increasing its production and bringing the 13 billion barrels of theoretical reserves in its portfolio into real saleable barrels.

To do that, Shell needs to spend heavily and investment this year has been confirmed at $15 billion, but the revisions reflect higher costs more than extra opportunities, which is a little disappointing. The investment programme for next year, still to be confirmed, is likely to be higher with some analysts predicting an $18 billion capital expenditure budget, reflecting the large cost overrun at the Sakhalin liquefied natural gas project.

Shell has the money to spend after banking some $13.7 billion from disposals. There is also speculation that it could use these funds to go on the acquisition trail next year.

Although it is doubtful that Shell would mount a deal with oil at these prices, it may be tempted by a mid-sized company if there was a sudden drop back to the sub-$30 range.

On the dividend front, Shell is maintaining the same level that it distributed in the last quarter but has said that it will spend about $2.6 billion on share buybacks in the fourth quarter, which seems worth waiting for.

In the current climate of high oil prices, making $15 billion of investment will produce high returns but the oil price has to fall sooner or later. The energy industry’s spending boom will lead to increased production, prices will drift and Shell will find the world a more challenging place for a higher-cost producer. Hold.

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