SOMEONE up there is looking more
kindly on Shell, the Anglo-Dutch multinational that reported its
third-quarter numbers yesterday. After all its troubles in
recent years, it has had something of a let-off from the passage
of hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Even with the battering to Mars, its biggest Gulf oil
platform, which will not be up and running until late next year,
Shell put the cost of the damage at $350 million (£196 million).
That is about half the amount that BP factored in for its
hurricane damage.
Meanwhile, the operating results were well ahead of City
forecasts, suggesting that Shell is squeezing what it can out of
a very favourable environment. The big question is what would
Shell look like if fortune was less kind to the company. Oil and
gas output is unlikely to grow much in the short term from this
year’s estimate of 3.5 million barrels per day. This reflects
Shell’s challenge in increasing its production and bringing the
13 billion barrels of theoretical reserves in its portfolio into
real saleable barrels.
To do that, Shell needs to spend heavily and investment
this year has been confirmed at $15 billion, but the revisions
reflect higher costs more than extra opportunities, which is a
little disappointing. The investment programme for next year,
still to be confirmed, is likely to be higher with some analysts
predicting an $18 billion capital expenditure budget, reflecting
the large cost overrun at the Sakhalin liquefied natural gas
project.
Shell has the money to spend after banking some $13.7
billion from disposals. There is also speculation that it could
use these funds to go on the acquisition trail next year.
Although it is doubtful that Shell would mount a deal with
oil at these prices, it may be tempted by a mid-sized company if
there was a sudden drop back to the sub-$30 range.
On the dividend front, Shell is maintaining the same level
that it distributed in the last quarter but has said that it
will spend about $2.6 billion on share buybacks in the fourth
quarter, which seems worth waiting for.
In the current climate of high oil prices, making $15
billion of investment will produce high returns but the oil
price has to fall sooner or later. The energy industry’s
spending boom will lead to increased production, prices will
drift and Shell will find the world a more challenging place for
a higher-cost producer. Hold.